Avolta AG (AVOL) Earnings Call Transcript

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Avolta Half Year Results 2026 Conference Call and Live Webcast. I'm Valentina, the Chorus Call operator. The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Mr. Xavier Espel, CEO of Avolta. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, good afternoon, good evening. Welcome to this first half 2026 results presentations for Avolta. I'm Xavier Espel, and I'm joined here with our Group CFO, Yves Gerster. I'm going to go straight to Page #4, where we have the highlights of this first half of 2026. We have reported an organic growth of 3.7%. If we discount the effect of the Middle East crisis, this organic growth would have been 5.2%. We have reported an EBITDA margin of 9.1%, slightly below last year. But again, if we discount the special effects related to the Middle East crisis and some major ramp-up operations that we had year-to-date, that EBITDA margin would have been 9.5%. Equity free cash flow, it has been reported CHF 207 million, in line with last year, but a very strong performance on quarter 2, where we generated CHF 370 million. We remain very focused on our capital allocation policy, focusing first on growth, organic growth, like the big contracts we signed in Pudong, Shanghai and the several terminals we won in JFK. But not only that, we have also announced in the last few months, Riga expansion in Saudi Arabia. We are also doing, as it is in our capital allocation policy, some selective, highly accretive small- and medium-sized acquisitions like the activities we bought earlier in Okinawa from LVMH. We keep focusing as a second priority on continuous deleveraging. And once more, we have deleveraged versus the same period of last year. And last but not least, we continue committed to the dividend we announced in the general assembly. And also, we continue acquiring shares for the share buyback program, EUR 106 million in June 30 of the EUR 225 million we have announced. We have confirmed this morning in our press release that we are confident on the midterm outlook. And this is based on the performance we are seeing in July, where our organic growth was more than, or is expected to be more than 4%, but also because the major impacts we had, particularly in quarter 2, we consider them of temporary nature. The Middle East crisis keeps being volatile, and it gives definitely uncertainty to the industry and the road travel industry. But it's also true that in the last few weeks, despite all what is happening, the crisis has less effect that it had at the beginning of the war. And the remaining aspects that are affecting us, the remaining headwinds are also being progressively less and less. The ramp-up is a very clear example. The ramp-up, both of Shanghai and JFK will still take a few months, but every month it is getting better and definitely in 2027. Also, we had some other additional effects like the bankruptcy of Spirit Airlines in North America. That is also a temporary effect because we are seeing like in prior crisis that the slots are being taken by other airlines, but of course, it takes a little bit of time. So I think the best way to say it is that we remain cautiously optimistic, and we expect progression over the next months and quarters on the positive side. If we move to the next page, we are showing here that all our four regions are having positive organic growth, but of course, affected in some cases by the headwinds I just mentioned. EMEA is the region most affected by the Middle East crisis, obviously. North America is affected by the Spirit Airlines bankruptcy that I mentioned and also because airlines in North America are focusing more on yield than capacity. And they are less growth in capacity than initially expected, which affects the number of passengers. But also experience shows that this is something that happens from time to time, a more focus on the yield, but capacity because it's related to the underlying passenger demand will go back at growth level in the next quarters. LatAm has been affected despite showing a good organic growth by security concerns in some parts of Mexico, by the hurricane in Jamaica and also by some fluctuations on the exchange rate, particularly in the southern part of Latin America. Asia Pacific, despite the effects of the Middle East crisis is showing a strong organic growth supported by the like-for-like, but also supported by the positive change of scope. All in all, despite the headwinds, a pretty resilient performance. If we move now to the next page, three messages. Despite the volatility, Avolta continues investing confidently in the future. We won business, duty-free, duty free and food and beverage in four terminals in JFK, which is one of the airports in North America with the major developments. We have signed a historical win in Shanghai Pudong Duty Free, the first time an international company, non-Chinese company has a material business duty-free in Mainland China. We have also grown on the type of M&A we have explained over and over, medium and small size, clearly accretive and in a very strategic market like Japan. We entered a few months ago with food and beverage in the Kansai Airport and now in Okinawa with the acquisition of the DFS business in Japan. Together with the China are two strategic moves, profitable and accretive and focus on return on investment, but at the same time, a strategic move to enter significantly large markets. And the business has been growing, also with new businesses and extensions in all the regions, has been published rigor has been published expansion in Saudi Arabia, as I just said. But one thing that remains the same. It doesn't matter where the progress is done, it's always focused on the return on investment those projects bring to the overall company. If we move to the next page, the second idea, we continue to transform. I have mentioned that many times, but I want to reemphasize again the importance of our size in locations, but also in access to data. Of the 10.2 billion air passengers we have every year in the world, we have access and exposure to 2.5 billion. That means a potential reach that puts us at the level of materially big and influential companies, for example, on the social media or the technology world. We had 700 million customers last year, and we have reached in June '26, 20 million Club Avolta members. So, since launch in October '24, the number of active members in Club Avolta has been growing month-on-month without exception. And why we do this focus on data and why we do this investment on transforming our data and technology capabilities because we believe that through that, we can improve pricing with dynamic pricing, we can improve assortment. We can go more local because we have the capacity to manage that. We can optimize inventory and working capital, and we can manage better our team members. And all that to fuel growth and spend per passenger to fuel margins, to fuel cash flow conversion and to fuel return on investment. If we move to the next page, the last idea, we continue to deliver. And we have confirmed the outlook once more. Just as a reminder that I do every quarter. This is a midterm outlook. It doesn't mean we are going to be at the outlook every quarter, every month, every week. But the midterm, we should be there. And that outlook is 5% to 7% organic growth, an EBITDA margin expansion of 20 to 40 basis points per year and an increased equity free cash flow also year-on-year. Together with this outlook, we deliver on the capital allocation. I know we repeat it many times, but I think it's important for the people that might be hearing us for first time. Number one, priority is investing in the business, existing concessions to increase sales, new concessions to support business development, technology to drive better sales and better margins, technology to improve also the efficiency of the company from supply chain to cost. Selective M&A, accretive, small and with the right return on investment. Priority # 2, keep improving our balance sheet, decreasing the level of leverage, which, again, today is the lowest it has been for a decade. And every quarter, every year, it keeps decreasing. Our target is to be between 1.5x and 2x, potentially going to 2.5x net debt to EBITDA on a temporary basis if we do some M&A. As a consequence of that, we are committing to straight shareholders remuneration with a dividend that is 1/3 of our cash flow. Cash flow grows, dividend grows every year. third year in a row that we have announced an increased dividend. And if there is still surplus of cash flow to invest that in share buyback, straight money returning to shareholders, we have announced for 2026, the third share buyback in a row. We are approximately half of the share buyback for 2026 as it corresponds to the 12 months share buyback. If you put the total dividend and the total share buyback of the last three years, including 2026, will be about CHF 1 billion of money going back to shareholders. So committing to invest, committing to transform and committing to deliver both on the outlook and on the capital allocation. Thank you very much. Now I hand over to Yves.

Thank you very much, Xavier, and welcome to everybody. Good afternoon and good morning to everybody on the line also from my side to this year's half year results presentation. Starting directly with the financial highlights on Page #10. Turnover came in at CHF 6.437 billion. That corresponds to an organic growth of 3.7%. As Xavi has already mentioned, we were impacted, obviously, by the Middle East crisis. Without Middle East impact, the organic growth would have been 5.2%. Core EBITDA came in at CHF 583 million, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 9.1%. Also here, this has been impacted by the Middle East and also the ramp-up of some of the very large operations, including Pudong and also JFK, which is a large project. Net of those effects, so net of the Middle East impact and net of the ramp-up of those two operations, EBITDA would have been 9.5%. Equity free cash flow came in at EUR 207 million, slightly short of the EUR 216 million of last year, but a significant improvement versus Q1. As we have mentioned during Q1, and as you probably remember, there was a gap of EUR 60 million, predominantly created by the Pudong ramp-up and the corresponding net working capital investments in the business. We have closed that gap to a large extent during Q2 and have generated a record cash flow of EUR 370 million in the second quarter this year. Leverage has been reduced further by around 0.1 turn and now stands at 2.07x. We have achieved that leverage disregarding the significant portion of treasury shares we bought for the share buyback in this year. Moving on to the next slide, Slide #11, with the growth contributors. I've already mentioned the 3.7% organic growth and the 5.2% net of the Middle East impact and Pudong and JFK ramp-up. On top of that, for the half year, we had a negative impact from M&A and others. As we have mentioned over the last couple of quarters, this is related to a contract we sold in EMEA. This has annualized now. We are about to close the business and the acquisition of Okinawa, which we bought from LVMH. And that will turn this line positive in the third quarter once we have closed the transaction. And as I've mentioned, this is expected imminent. Growth at constant exchange came in at 3.1% for the half year. We had a negative FX effect for the half year of 5.7%, but an easing in the second quarter where we only see minus 3.1%. We do expect for the full year to see an FX result of minus 3.5% assuming that the FX rates remain roughly stable on the level they currently are. If we quickly looking at the contribution per region, EMEA came in at 1.9%, obviously affected the most by the Middle East crisis. Net of that, the organic growth of EMEA would have been 4.6%. Looking at the other regions, they all contributed nicely to the growth, the organic growth across the board. Moving on to the next slide, Slide #12, with the detailed P&L. I will not go again into the turnover growth. But if you look at gross profit margin, we observed a slight decrease by 20 basis points versus last year. That's on one hand side, mix effects and also the effect from the ramp-up of Pudong. Additionally, on concession expenses and personnel expenses, we do see a slight increase as a percentage of turnover versus last year. Also here, we see ramp-up effects on one hand side and the mix effect due to the strong growth we observed in APAC versus other regions and the relatively muted growth due to the Middle East crisis in EMEA. EBITDA came in at 9.1%. We have already commented on that, net of the Middle East effect and the ramp-up, it would have been 9.5%. Below EBITDA, the P&L is actually quite uneventful and in line with expectations in regard to depreciation and amortization and all the other lines. Financial result was slightly positively impacted by some positive FX results. Moving on to the next slide with the cash flow statement. Core EBITDA year-on-year came in EUR 29 million lighter. Equity free cash flow, we have actually catched up most of that effect, only having minus EUR 9 million gap versus last year. Obviously, we spent a little bit less on CapEx. So that certainly helped. It's important to note here that this is not an active measures we have taken. It's a few timing shifts, including the ramp-up in JFK, we have discussed earlier. So there will be a catch-up effect in that regard. And on the other hand, we have spent some additional income tax paid this year, which is balancing to a certain extent, the negative CapEx impact. Otherwise, below the equity free cash flow line, we see a strong purchase of treasury shares of EUR 160 million on one hand side for the share buyback program and also for the long-term incentive plan. Additionally, we have seen a negative FX impact from the translation of the net debt into Swiss francs, resulting in a negative evolution year-on-year. Moving on to the next slide with the net debt and the leverage. So as you can see on top, we have already reduced once more the leverage by around 0.1 turn from 2.15 to 2.07, so roughly 0.1 turn reduction year-on-year, disregarding the share buyback progress and the higher dividend we have paid. On top of that, if we look at the maturity profile at the bottom left, still a very balanced picture. We have one maturity coming up in 2027. It was originally a EUR 750 million bond. We have already refinanced EUR 400 million earlier this year and the remaining part here represented as CHF 366 million or EUR 350 million is expected to come later in the year, which will also be refinanced. So, you can expect to hear again from us in due course in that regard. Otherwise, the balance sheet remains very balanced in regard to maturity, in regard to currencies, in regard to fixed floating debt. What we have. Look, having said that, let me quickly conclude with how I see the half year results. Overall, good results, obviously impacted by Middle East. We can obviously not deny that. That's something which happens, and which is external factors only partially or not in our hands. On the other hand, very solid, very resilient performance, thanks to our diversified platform. Let me repeat what Xavi mentioned in his opening remarks, for the next couple of months and into the second half of 2026, we remain cautiously optimistic about the future trajectory. Having said that, I hand over back to Xavi.

Thank you, Yves. And just to echo what Yves just said, cautiously optimistic on the short term and to add a little bit more optimistic on the mid and long term. With that, we can open the Q&A session. Thank you very much for your attention.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Manjari Dhar from RBC.

I just have two, if I may. The first question is on the new contract ramp-ups. I just wondered if you could give a little bit more color on sort of where we've got to on Pudong and JFK now and how we should expect those to impact the margin in the second half? And then secondly, on cash flow, I just wondered if you could give us some color on how you're thinking about equity free cash flow phasing and development for the second half? And maybe some color on whether we should expect CapEx to pick up given slightly lower CapEx as a percentage of sales in H1?

Thank you very much. I will take the first one. Look, what happens in those two locations, and typically, the ramp-up projects or the ramp-up affects you always have, but they are typically not seen in the consolidated figures because they are smaller effects. And these are two very large new concessions. And the ramp-up comes from spaces from the airport that have not been delivered on time, construction works, the hiring of people, fully understanding the flow, providing for the working capital, in some cases, having the supply chain like in China that for duty-free is completely new for us. So what typically you will see effects of a few weeks or three months, now you're seeing two very large group of concessions, and that takes a few months instead of a few weeks. Every month is a little bit better, but I think we will not see full operation in these two locations until next year. So the effect should be fading away quarter-on-quarter, but they will last still a little bit for 2026. And maybe you want to take the second one?

Absolutely. So look, on the cash flow, just to be clear, as I've mentioned before, the CapEx, yes, was maybe a little bit lighter in the first half, representing around three-point-something percent on turnover, slightly lower than what we typically would expect. But this is related to the shift in some of the projects specifically also JFK, which happens a little bit later than initially assumed. So yes, in the second half, you may see a little bit of a catch-up effect there. But then on the other hand, we paid more income tax, for example, in the first half than we would typically assume. And there is also a timing shift, an opposite timing shift in that regard because the invoices for income tax have been received earlier than anticipated. So net-net, that balances each other. So maybe in the second half of the year, you see a little bit more CapEx, but then also a little bit less income tax, et cetera. So net-net, the impact is probably rather neutral. And look, it's probably too early to comment on the cash flow for the second half, but there's nothing unusual, nothing special to be mentioned in that regard.

The next question comes from Jon Cox from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Maybe two questions. Maybe for Xavier. I note you were mentioning don't expect us to reach the guidance every sort of day, week quarter. I'm just thinking about this year, you didn't say anything about you could potentially not meet it in any particular year. Just wondering if you think you have enough in the tank to make up in the second half of the margin pressure and also the organic sales growth, particularly when you look at IATA data, it looks pretty fragile in quite a few markets. Second question, just in terms of the margin by different regions in the first half of the year. Maybe one for Yves. I actually see the margin went up in North America by 70 basis points year-on-year. And also then you can see that EMEA is down 50 basis points, Latin America down 200 plus, Asia Pacific down 200 plus. I wonder if you can just sort of guide us through the various factors. I'm guessing Asia Pacific was Pudong, EMEA, of course, Middle East. But I'm just wondering why North America was up and then Latin America was down in terms of margin year-on-year.

Thank you very much. The comment I made earlier on was thinking about some people, particularly you because I knew you were going to ask precisely about the second half of the year. Look, let me first, and I'm not trying to avoid the question, but I think it's important to put some context. So some of the effects we know are getting better month-on-month and quarter-on-quarter. So we know when we are going to open the missing shops in Pudong and in JFK, and we know there is a schedule, and we know things will keep going in the right direction. But it will take a few months because that's the planning. We are talking about thousands of square meters in the JFK, for example, in four big terminals. And some of those terminals are new buildings with all the implications that, that has on getting to learn how the flows works, et cetera. It's not only a learning curve for us, but sometimes also a learning curve from the airport. China, Mainland China duty-free came with even a higher level of challenge on legal authorizations, et cetera, something only some Chinese companies had experience on. I see it positively. I mean, if we have these major effects in '26, it's because we signed two group of very material contracts that over time, it will be positive. But at the beginning, they have a negative impact. That impact will be every month, a little bit less in the incoming six months. But I think realistically, you will have them at full potential only in 2027. Okinawa will also be supportive. This year will be consolidated maybe three, four months, next year, 12 months. So, we have some positive investments in '26 that will pay off a little bit later. Now, the only thing we don't control is the Middle East effect. What we are seeing is a lower effect now than three months ago, but it's still an effect. And probably looking at what is happening in the world, on and off, there will be some disturbance on that part of the world. When I put everything together, what we feel comfortable at this stage to say is that we see a progressive improvement. We think quarter 2 is probably the bottom, but we are not feeling comfortable on giving specifics for the next couple of quarters. And I think it's fair because some of what is happening, we control, others we don't control. But I think saying that we are cautiously optimistic and that we see positive progression, I think it is very important. And one thing we've been saying for a few years now is, we are more resilient than the other companies in the industry because of our size. I think looking at what is going on in the world, it is a pretty solid set of numbers. But we also said that when there will be volatility, we will consistently focus on cash flow generation. And I think that's what once more you are seeing. Per region, the major effects are EMEA, you very well said, this Middle East effect. LatAm has been affected Mexico by some security concerns. There are less Americans going to the touristic destination in Mexico this year, but that has happened in the past. And again, it's cyclical. There are some more extreme movements on the exchange rates of the different countries than usual, Argentina, Brazil, et cetera, that has a slightly negative effect in the profitability. But again, we always say if you go to quarter per region or you go to weekly per country, the volatility is higher than if you go to the group and for the full year. And that's a little bit our commitment. Asia Pacific, yes, definitely is a Pudong ramp-up. And North America is very interesting because even if JFK is a very large operation, proportionally to the size of North America is less relevant. So it shows if you want, a little bit what we are able to do on the profitability of a region when the disturbing effects are less than they are in other regions. But again, I would not read much into a quarter results of a region. I still prefer to look at the full year and the full group. Thank you.

The next question comes from Jorn Iffert from UBS

I would have two questions, please. The first one is your midterm outlook is ending in 2027. Can you share with us with your thoughts how you look on the organic sales growth prospects beyond? Was the 5% to 7% still supported somewhat after the COVID recovery that this was helpful and now it could fade a little bit? Or do you think the 5% to 7% is something we should also assume for the next couple of years given your business model strategies? And the second question, please, can you give us an update on your initiatives you are doing with investment in digitalization, loyalty program, et cetera, in terms of shops where you have tested this more pronounced about success ratio? Thank you very much.

Look, the midterm outlook remains unchanged until we say something different. Every five years, we do a full strategic review. But at this stage, we feel comfortable with the 5% to 7% that you mentioned. On the digital technology and data transformation, we continue at full speed. I gave just a few messages in one slide. But as I said, Club Avolta reached already 20 million members. But it's not only the size of the program, it's also the quality, the progressive improvement on the quality of the data we get from the Club Avolta. It's not only the members. We can use the understanding of the behavior of the members in the Club Avolta, which I hope it's all of you, and then extrapolate some of that behavior to non-Club Avolta members. So, it's a tool in itself, but it's also a tool to understand other type of customers. We did the pilot, I explained a little bit on dynamic pricing. Now we are doing an extended pilot in 5 different locations and probably we will progressively extend that over the next couple of years. We are doing also pilots on dynamic assortment. We believe that people face changes faster than in the past. And also, we need to invest in making the assortment more dynamic. We keep investing, and we're giving a push at the last quarter of this year on camera analytics. Remember, I mentioned that in the past, it's not only our aim to understand the customers, which we know on the ticket information, on the Club Avolta membership, but also to understand the behavior of noncustomers. People that browse the store, but they don't buy anything or people that, and then learn through camera analytics and the software, how we can improve our offering. We are also investing more and more on digital advertising on the stores. So, there is several initiatives that they might look from outside that they are disconnected but they are all connected on an overall strategy. And the overall strategy is, in simple terms, passengers change. Passengers behave in a different way. For example, I typically don't like to give details because then everybody knows, but millennials buy 70% of them buy on impulse. So, for example, dynamic advertising is very important to capture them. Boomers, more than 50% to 60% do plan the purchase in duty free. And therefore, the strategy to capture them is a different one. So, all these learnings not only nationalities, but age, backgrounds, gender, whatever might condition the way they behave, is what we want to learn. And then this simple idea to apply it one by one to anything that can make a difference from assortment to pricing to supply chain to advertising to entertainment, to hybrids, et cetera, et cetera. More and more take decisions based on what we learn from the passengers. And this is continuing. It's not always going at the speed I would like. I have to confess. Sometimes we take longer. But again, is the direction. Like I received the question, Asia, why don't you grow in Asia, et cetera. And I always said the direction is very clear, but it will take time. And it has taken time, but now it's taking off. The same thing on the digital and data transformation. We have done a lot, not enough, but it's going on the right direction. And thank you for the question because those two questions are a little bit more longer term, and I like very much. So, thank you.

The next question comes from Harry Gowers from JPMorgan.

A couple of questions, if I could. The first one, just on Okinawa, what sort of margins can that business bring into Avolta? Is it above the group kind of average EBITDA margin? And then maybe just a little bit on why that business, in particular, was attractive for you to add to the group? And then second question on Pudong and JFK combined. I understand the sales ramp-up and opening the new stores can take a few quarters. But when might we kind of get to a full profit maturity, either could that take a couple of years? Or can they reach a full margin potential very quickly, potentially even in 2027? And then third question, if I could, again, kind of just related, but do you envisage any more really big concession wins over the next 12 to 18 months, similar to JFK or Pudong, which will have this temporary drag on performance in the ramp-up? Or is 2027 just going to see you solidifying some of that recent space growth? Thank you very much.

I have to be always careful on what we disclose or not. So I'm looking at, if I can say that Okinawa should be ahead of the average margin. I'm not sure I'm allowed to say that, but I also said it. Why it was very attractive? For several reasons. Number one, we were in Japan recently, three months ago in food and beverage, but not in retail. And that gives us the opportunity to step in into the retail and the duty free, which makes Japan from a market where we were not a market where we are with retail and food and beverage. This is from a strategic point of view, very important. And to do that in an accretive way, it's even more important. Japan is a very large market in our industry, but very difficult to enter. And now we are there. On top of that, this particular location has a higher component of some luxury brands than our average group. So it's also a great opportunity to increase our expertise in a segment that is small for our business, but that is relevant when in certain places, you want to win new spaces. To be able to bring certain brands in your portfolio, it's something that might help the development in other regions. But we didn't do the acquisition to get the profit somewhere else in a distant future. In itself, it's accretive and it's the right acquisition. But on top of that, bring some more structural benefits. Pudong and JFK, they should be almost normalize in 2027, probably not fully. So it could be an additional upside in '28, but the distortion, it should be, the difference between '27 and '28, it should be limited. Your last question, I don't know how to answer because right now, I have to say I do not see major ramp-up effects for '27 with the current pipeline. But on the other side, I would say, well, maybe I wouldn't mind to have another one. But the reality is that the pipeline is very healthy in the four regions. We see very nice opportunities. But on average, those opportunities are smaller on size. So even if we will win a few of them, the ramp-up effect should be very limited, if any.