Silicom Ltd. (SILC) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Silicom Third Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. You should have all received by now the company's press release. If you have not received it, please contact Silicom's Investor Relations team at EK Global Investor Relations at 1 (212) 378-8040 or view it in the News section of the company's website, www.silicom-usa.com. I would now like to hand over the call to Mr. Kenny Green of EK Global Investor Relations. Mr. Green, would you like to begin, please?

Thank you, operator. I would like to welcome all of you to Silicom's Third Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to the following safe harbor statement. This conference call contains projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future performance of the company. These statements are only predictions and may change as time passes. Silicom does not assume any obligation to update that information. Actual events or results may differ materially from those projected, including as a result of Silicom's increasing dependence for a substantial revenue growth on a limited number of customers in the evolving cloud-based SD-WAN, NFV and Edge markets; the speed and extent to which solutions are adopted by these markets; the likelihood at Silicom will rely increasingly on customers which provide these solutions in these evolving markets, resulting in an increasing dependence on a smaller number of larger customers; difficulty in commercializing and marketing of Silicom's products and services; maintaining and protecting brand recognition, protection of intellectual property, competition, disruptions to manufacturing, sales and marketing, development and customer support activity; the impact of the war in Ukraine and the war in Israel; rising inflation, rising interest rates, volatile exchange rates and commodities prices; as well as any continuing or new effects resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic uncertainty, which may impact customer demand through exercising greater caution; and selectivity with a short-term IT investment plan as well as other factors discussed in our annual report on Form 20-F and other documents filed by the company that may be subsequently filed by the company from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, following the company's disclosure of certain non-GAAP financial measures in today's earnings release, such non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed during this call. Such non-GAAP measures are used by management to make strategic decisions, forecast future results and evaluate the company's current performance. Management believes that the presentation of these non-GAAP financial measures are useful to investors' understanding and assessment of the company's ongoing core operations and prospects for the future. Unless otherwise stated, it should be assumed that financials discussed in this conference call will be on a non-GAAP basis. Non-GAAP financial measures disclosed by management are provided as additional information to investors in order to provide them with an alternative method for assessing our financial conditions and operating results. These measures are not in accordance with or a substitute for GAAP. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures are included in today's earnings release, which you can find on Silicom's website. And with us on the line today are Mr. Liron Eizenman, President and CEO; and Mr. Eran Gilad, CFO. Liron will begin with an overview of the results followed by Eran who will provide the analysis of the financials. We will then turn the call over to the question-and-answer session. And with that, I would now like to hand the call over to iron. Liron, please go ahead.

Thank you, Kenny. Welcome to our financial results conference call discussing our third quarter 2020 results. Our third quarter revenues were $30.1 million. This is in line with the expectations that we announced this quarter. In terms of profitability, we reported third quarter net profit of $2.1 million and third quarter earnings of $0.30 per diluted share. I would like to spend a few moments discussing the very limited visibility we are currently experiencing in the market; the factors currently at play, which are impacting us; as well as our expectations for the short and midterm. As I'm sure you remember, since the global COVID shutdown 3 years ago in 2020, supply chains around the world became tight with very limited availability, especially of electronic components. Silicom, like many other companies, leveraged its strong balance sheet to prudently increase and maintain high inventory levels of components. This was to ensure that we could continue to build the products that our customers need in a timely way, maintain strong business continuity and, most importantly, keep our clients happy with continued top quality service provision. Similarly, over the past 2 years, our customers ordered a high level of our products from us so they can manufacture products for their customers in turn. And this ordering, a good portion for inventory, drove above-average demand and high backlog for our product in both 2021 and 2022. However, the second half of 2023 has seen a reversal in this trend. The supply chain tightness has abated, and customers, which has built up significant inventories, are now drawing on their existing stocks of our products where possible and currently do not need to order significant quantities from us. Another impact is related to industry and economic headwinds facing our customers that began to affect our revenue in the last quarter. Consistent with the rest of our industry, we expect the macroeconomic uncertainty to persist into 2024, which impacts our customers' investment ability. This is leading to holding off and longer decision-making processes on new projects as well as delays and slowing in the investment and implementation of existing infrastructure projects. Some recent design wins are ramping up significantly more slowly than initially anticipated. Those projects are proceeding cautiously, diverging from the original time line forecasted by our customers. Given the volatile environment over the past few years, with everything that has happened since COVID as well as global economic downturn, we are also seeing some changes in our industry which also poses new challenges as well as new opportunities in what is already a very low visibility environment. To provide you with just 2 examples. Due to supply chain and component shortages issues, many companies in our industry face manufacturing difficulties in recent years. As a result, those companies are now taking a strategic review of their entire operation process. A result of that may be a decision to change our decision-making processes and integration processes. With that, the selection of the specific server adapter vendor, which will be used for building their systems, may be moved from the company to its integrator. While this may present an opportunity for us with companies which currently do not use our server adapters, it may present a challenge with existing customers that we'll face once such customer will exhaust the excess inventory he currently has. During the last years, the ownership of a few companies in our industry has changed throughout a series of mergers and acquisitions. Such ownership changes may result in significant changes in the identity of a decision-maker and may also result in a change in the customer's business focus. Again, such changes may present an opportunity as well as a challenge to Silicom once such customer will exhaust its excess inventory. However, for now, it further reduces our already very low visibility. Taking all those factors into account, we expect to see Q4 revenues between $20 million and $21 million. Looking further to next year, given our very limited visibility and the factors I just discussed, we expect 2024 to be a challenging year. However, we strongly believe that we will return to double-digit growth in 2025. Given those recent impacts to revenue, we've already begun to take several actions to manage discretionary costs and align spending with the current environment. We are adjusting our expense footprint to the right level relative to our expected revenue level, ensuring that we maintain investment in activities which will bring Silicom future growth while preserving technological knowledge and customer relationships. Those actions should allow us to reduce the negative impact on our non-GAAP earnings per share without compromising our long-term objectives. We believe that the actions we are taking now, our well-proven long-term experience in managing our expenses and our strong cash position, which currently stands at $67 million, will allow us to maintain a very strong balance sheet through the challenging period ahead of us. In parallel, we intend to increase our focus on the sectors that have allowed us to grow so well in the recent past and those that we believe will remain primary growth drivers for us into 2025 and beyond, server adapters, including specific FPGA-based and hardware acceleration SmartNICs and Edge systems. We've already begun evaluations of all of our research and development and sales and marketing programs with the intention to increase our investments in our focus areas and stop our investment in any out-of-focus areas. We are optimistic about 2025. we believe that by 2025, we will convert some large projects in our pipeline into new design wins, and the ramp-up of existing ones will generate more meaningful revenues. Despite the current challenges over the immediate term, our mid- to long-term outlook remains positive. Our aim is to return to double-digit revenue growth and recovery in 2025 underpinned by strong and continually growing list of design wins, many of which are with some of the world's leading players in telco and networking space. I would like to share with you a few examples of the additional revenue potential inherent in our impressive roster of design wins and in our potential design wins pipeline that underlies our expectations for 2025 recovery. Within this long list, we can easily identify about 20 design wins, a few we have already won and not yet at the mass production stage, and others that are in the last stages of our potential design wins pipeline, each having a sales addition potential of between $0.5 million and a few million dollars by 2025. Those design wins with leading networking security and service providers are for our advanced server adapters and Edge system products, our strategic focus areas. Beyond that, we are continuing to expand our business with a leading U.S.-based provider of enterprise telecommunication services with which we have already won a few active designments, and we expect to win more in the coming years. This opportunity by itself has an additional sales potential of about $10 million in 2025. And furthermore, we are expecting to transition for the proof-of-concept stage to the mass production sales stage for 2 design wins we've already won with 2 leading strategic companies with a sales potential of approximately $10 million in 2025. As SASE grows, and given our both customers' dominant position within the SASE market, we expect strong future growth in sales to those customers. Our balance sheet remains very strong and has been the outcome of a very well planned and executed strategy over many years. As I said, our net cash position currently stands at $67 million with no debt. It represents an increase of $4 million during the third quarter. Our strong cash position remains a key strategic asset and enables us to continue investing in the long term and overcome challenging periods ahead of us. As we have shown, we are very happy to share the rewards of our continued profitability and cash generation with our shareholders. based on our strong cash position, we intend to continue to repurchase our shares under the $50 million share repurchase plan that we announced 6 months ago. I would like to take a moment to address the situation in Israel. We were all absolutely horrified by the terrible attack and kidnapping of ordinary citizens in the South of Israel, which led to the current war by Israel against Hamas in Gaza. All Silicom employees have been affected in a very personal way. Given the small size of our country, we all have friends and no families that were directly impacted by these attacks. Many of us have sons and daughters that are in the Israeli army. We all pray for the victims as well as their families, friends and loved ones who have been directly or indirectly impacted. We are resilient people and, unfortunately, have much experience in working overcoming challenging times. I wish to reaffirm to our employees, partners and shareholders that our operations and manufacturing has not been impacted in Israel or anywhere else in the world despite our personal grieving. Naturally, the safety of our employees remains our highest priority. Finally, I also want to presently thank each and everyone who has reached out to us to express their support and best wishes. To summarize, Silicom is navigating a much more challenging short-term environment across many fronts. I want to stress though that Silicom is well positioned as a key player in our industry, and given the growing potential within our design win roster, our long and deep pipeline and our continually growing total addressable market, I am optimistic on our long-term future, especially from 2025 and beyond. We believe that our drivers for long-term demand remain intact. As we navigate the current situation, we remain highly focused on our first priority target of maintaining our market leadership, developing new products that will act as growth drivers and lead to design wins over many years, delivering on technology road maps and, ultimately, ensuring customer satisfaction. At the same time, we continue to carefully manage the company expenses and cash position. With that, I will now hand over the call to Eran for a detailed review of the quarter results. Eran, please go ahead.

Thank you, Liron, and hello, everyone. Revenues for the third quarter of 2023 were $30.1 million, a 23% decrease, compared with revenues of $39.2 million as reported in the third quarter of last year. Our geographical revenue breakdown over the last 12 months was as follows: North America, 82%; Europe and Israel, 15%; and Far East and rest of the world, 3%. During the last 12 months, we had 2 10%-plus customers, and our top 3 customers together accounted for about 35% of our revenues. I will be presenting the rest of the financial results on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes the noncash compensation expenses in respect of options and RSUs granted to directors, officers and employees, acquisition-related adjustments as well as lease liabilities, financial income. For the full reconciliation from GAAP to non-GAAP numbers, please refer to the press release we issued earlier today. Gross profit for the third quarter of 2023 was $9.3 million, representing a gross margin of 31.1% compared to a gross profit of $14.1 million or gross margin of 36% in the third quarter of 2022. The higher portion of Edge systems sold in the quarter, combined with recent higher price pressure from customers mainly a result of the macroeconomic slowdown, pushed this quarter's gross margin below our expected range of between 32% and 36%. We are currently investigating the specific impact of various factors on our future gross margin and intend to provide an updated gross margin expected range with the release of the next quarter results. Operating expenses in the third quarter of 2023 were $7.4 million compared to $6.9 million as reported in the third quarter of 2022. Operating income for the third quarter of 2023 was $1.9 million compared to operating income of $7.2 million as reported in the third quarter of 2022. Net income for the quarter was $2.1 million compared to $6.9 million in the third quarter of 2022. Earnings per diluted share in the quarter were $0.30. This is compared with earnings per diluted share of $1.01 as reported in the third quarter of last year. Now turning to the balance sheet. As of September 30, 2023, the company's cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled $67.3 million with no debt or $10.11 per outstanding share. During the third quarter, Silicom purchased approximately 144,000 shares at a cost of $3.9 million under the $15 million share repurchase plan we announced earlier this year. In total, Silicom has purchased an aggregate $48 million in share buybacks in recent years. As mentioned by Liron, based on our strong balance sheet and improved cash position, we intend we intend to continue repurchasing our shares at full pace. That ends my summary. I would like to hand back over to the operator for the questions-and-answer session. Operator?

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Alex Henderson of Needham & Company.

So a lot of moving parts here. Can we start at the upper end of that discussion with respect to ability to sustain profitability? I think you guys have had a track record over an extremely long time of maintaining profitability even in the toughest of events. Yet, when I put in the midpoint of the guide for the fourth quarter and don't change anything else in the model, even with the 33% gross margin, I'm getting a very slight loss per share based on the prior operating structure. So as we're looking into the fourth quarter and into the '24 time frame, is it fair to say that you guys are going to do whatever it takes to not produce a loss on a quarterly basis and sustain your profitability track record.

So maybe I'll start in the end, I would say, on an annual basis, we still plan to be, I would say, breakeven or profitable, right? That's our goal on an annual basis. And it does not mean that we will do everything we need to do in order to be there because our plan, based on the analysis we've done, is that we can continue and develop the product that we need and continue to do everything that we need to do in order to grow the company in 2025 and beyond, and we don't want to sacrifice that. That's extremely important for us. But we took steps, we took a lot of steps, in order to manage our cost to make sure that even at our estimated 2024 numbers or the plan that we have in mind, we will, on an annual basis, be breakeven or profitable.

Right. So it does sound like you think that there is a risk that you could go to a loss position on a quarterly basis over that time frame. Is that a fair statement?

It is possible when we are looking mainly on the annual level, and as we said during the first part of this meeting, as we go into this situation with $65 million in the bank, we feel comfortable with that. So overall, we feel that we're getting into this bad situation in a reasonably good position.

Yes. So there is risk of losses on a quarterly basis, okay. So in that context, obviously, the yen's fallen out of bed and OpEx should benefit from -- actually, not the yen, the shekel has fallen out of bed. It's down quite a bit partly because of the macro conditions, partly because of interest rates, partly because of the war. And that should help your numbers. When will that start to benefit to the cost side?

Basically, already. I mean, in Q3, we've seen -- again, there was some increase from Q2, but the impact of the last 2 weeks, obviously, were not something you've seen in the Q3 numbers. But overall, we think, yes, obviously, it will impact the numbers from Q4 and beyond.

Okay. The company made a couple of comments on the call here. One was the GM potential reset and the other one was the strategic review of your customers. What portion of the customer base do you think is at risk of a strategic review potentially shifting to integrators? And how much of a lag would that create in the timing of purchases, if that occurs with those customers? Can you quantify a little bit around that, what portion of the business is related to it?

Hard to give a number, but I would say it's not very big, but it's also not negligible. I mean we've seen those as trends, not necessarily decisions that already been made completely because, in some cases, those are debates that are happening in certain companies. And in some cases, it may be decisions that have been made but were not implemented yet. And as we know, sometimes decisions have been taken and eventually not fully implemented, but we see it as some kind of phenomena that we see with several customers because of what happened during the COVID and the shortages in the component space. So I hope that answers the question.

Well, actually, it doesn't give me a lot of information. I was hoping you could give a little more granularity. Is it 10%, 15%, 25% of your customers are contemplating that kind of transition? Or is it 0% to 5%? Because it really is an important point. If it's a large percentage of your customers, i.e., 15%, 20%, 25%, that could cause some delay in the time line for the ramping of their projects. So we can't analyze this externally. You need to give us some sort of detail around it.

You're right. I would say that I would estimate it at about $5 million annually.

Okay. So it's not a large factor. It's a more modest factor.

Yes. And still, I would say this is at risk. I mean it's not that we're losing the $5 million...

Yes. I totally understand. But the $5 million isn't moving the needle when you're having a $10 million, $15 million, $20 million swing in the fourth quarter, so that parameterizes it. And on the GM side of it, can you give us a little bit of more detail on what you think the reason for that 31% number was? And is that a function of manufacturing variances? Is it a function of change in pricing? What caused that? And how much at risk is our model, which is sitting at 32.9% in gross margins in '24? Should we be thinking of 31%, 32%? Or is 32.9% still an okay kind of calculus? And I know you don't want to give specific guidance, but you need to give us some guardrails here.

So number one, and that Eran spoke to that, is the mix of products. As we see that more Edge products are being sold compared to the overall revenue that we have in the company, and those products usually have lower GP, then we see the impact more and more. We also feel price pressure from customers due to the economic situation and the situation that have changed now that components are readily available, it's very easy. So I mean we do feel the price pressure from companies. So those are the main 2 factors, I would say, for that. It's not that something changed dramatically in the way that we manufacture. I mean it's pretty much the same, but the overall 2 factors of price pressure and the mix of product is causing that.

So in the interim, between now and when you can give us a more complete guidance on what you think that guideline should look like for gross margin, from the prior guide, I think it was, what, 32% to 36%. Is it reasonable to think that the modeling that we're currently carrying of 32.9% is a viable number? Or should we be thinking of a range of 31% to 33% kind of thing, which in case, we need to make some adjustments.

So we're looking to that. I mean that's what Eran in his part talked about, that we're looking into that. We're investigating. We're trying to analyze that as best as we can. And we will provide an update once we feel that we know what is the range we can give.